Is the Boise Housing Market Going to Crash? Here’s What Experts Say
If you’ve scrolled through headlines or social media lately, you’ve probably seen someone predicting a housing crash. But before you brace for bad news, here’s the truth:
📊 The data doesn’t show a crash coming — it shows slow, steady growth.
Of course, market trends can vary from one area to another. Some cities may see prices rise faster, while others experience small, temporary dips. But overall, national and local forecasts — including those here in Boise and the Treasure Valley — point toward continued price appreciation, not a collapse.
The Real Story: Expert Forecasts Still Point Up 📈
According to the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, over 100 housing market experts agree: home prices are expected to increase nationally through at least 2029.
Even when you break the projections into three groups — optimistic, average, and pessimistic — all expect prices to go up, not down.
✅ The average forecast shows home prices climbing about 15% through 2029.
🌟 The optimists predict gains of around 26%.
📉 Even the most cautious experts still project a 5% increase.
That’s a clear message — not one of panic, but of progress.
What This Means for Boise Homeowners
Here in the Boise metro area, the market has cooled compared to the pandemic boom years, but that’s a good thing.
Between 2020 and 2022, home prices jumped by double digits as record-low inventory met record-high demand. Today, appreciation has leveled off to a more sustainable 2–3% per year — which is much closer to the long-term average of 4–5%.
In other words, Boise’s housing market is finding its balance again. Homes are still gaining value, just at a healthier, steadier pace.
Why a Crash Isn’t in the Cards
A major reason Boise — and the nation — won’t see a crash like 2008 comes down to supply and demand.
While affordability remains a challenge for some buyers, there still aren’t enough homes to meet the growing demand in the Treasure Valley. Between population growth, in-migration from nearby states, and limited new construction, the Boise area continues to face an inventory shortage.
That imbalance keeps home prices supported, not sinking.
A Market That Recovers — Every Time
Even during past economic downturns, housing has always proven resilient. Over the last 50 years, the real estate market has weathered inflation, recessions, and rate hikes — and it always recovers.
Right now, Boise’s market is in that recovery phase — stabilizing after a few wild years and setting up for long-term, healthy growth.
If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look past the headlines and focus on the data.
The question isn’t if Boise home prices will rise — it’s by how much.
Thinking about your next move? Let’s talk about what’s really happening in Boise’s housing market and how to position yourself for success.
📞 Call The Soldman Team at (208) 866-7788
🏡 Your Boise real estate experts — helping you move with confidence.
